Pandemic and the 10-80-10 principle
I thought it would be interesting to reflect on the 10-80-10 concept and observations of human behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This rule or principle may be familiar to those who have taken the NCS4-FEMA MGT 412 course on sport and special events evacuation. However, some background may be helpful.
The Pareto Principle, known as the 80-20 rule, was suggested in the early 1800’s by Italian economist and sociologist Wilfried Pareto. Simply stated the principle holds that 80% of a problem is the result of 20% of the underlying cause.
In the 1940’s Joseph M. Juran an engineer and management consultant working in the US applied the Pareto Principle to human behavior, specifically management theory and quality control. Using Juran’s logic it might be suggested that 20% of the persons on a work team are going to be responsible for 80% of the success on a project.
Contemporary researchers and theorists, Dr John Leach among them, have expanded on the Pareto Principle building the “10-80-10 principle” in an effort to explain human behavior in greater detail. It has been applied to leadership, coaching sports teams, time management, workplace ethics and organization, and survival.
The 10-80-10 principle reasons that in an emergency or crisis 10% of us are leaders; we have a plan, take action, and do the right thing. This group has been labeled the “Survivors”. We are quick to assess and make a decision. Individuals in public safety professions generally live in this world on a daily basis.
The largest group of us are the 80% who may be dazed, panicky and disoriented. We are “Confused” and struggle to simply make sense out of the situation. We seek direction and wait for someone to take the lead and tell us what to do.
Finally, there are the “Doomed”; 10% of us that behave in counter-productive ways. We may intentionally ignore authoritative sources, do the wrong thing and even hasten our own injury.
What have you observed or noted during the COVID-19 pandemic? Are there individuals or groups that could be placed in any of these categories?
Are the young people who went to the Florida beaches on Spring Break “Doomed” or simply “Confused” and waiting for information and a specific direction? In a Chronicles of Higher Education article Karin Fisher states that experts called the spring break migration an “unanticipated variable” particularly “when some students failed to heed public-health officials’ advice not to congregate in large groups.” Further Florida state officials had to eventually take specific action to restrict student spring break behavior by shutting down the beaches and closing the packed bars and restaurants even as millions of Americans elsewhere already were sheltering in place.
Does the hoarding of toilet paper and hand sanitizer reflect the behavior of a Survivor or the counterproductive Doomed?
In the least, there will be an abundance of human behavior or response to a crisis for social scientists to study.
How might security consultants apply 10-80-10 principles? One of the outcomes of an independent, external assessment process is to build resiliency and move clients toward the 10% “Survivor” group. In a crisis such as we are experiencing with the pandemic, basic preparedness principles apply. After action review processes and improvement plans are important along with asset protection and business continuity planning.
I would be interested in hearing your thoughts: info@srmcllc.com.
References:
In Closing Dorms, Colleges Hoped to Limit Coronavirus’s Spread. Did Spring-Breakers Thwart That Plan? Karin Fischer The Chronicle of Higher Education APRIL 01, 2020
Joseph M. Juran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_M._Juran#Pareto_principle
Vilfredo Pareto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vilfredo_Pareto
Pareto principle WikiPedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle#cite_note-NYT-3
Sunjay Nath Engineering Human Performance website https://sunjaynath.com/?popuppress=10-80-10-principle
Run, Hide, Fight: Why the current version doesn’t work for live events, and how to do better. Steven A Adelman, Protocol: The Journal of the Entertainment Technology Industry, Summer 2016 Volume 21, Number 3
Psychological factors in exceptional, extreme and torturous environments, John Leach, Journal of Extreme Physiology & Medicine, 2016 Volume 5 Number 7.
Sport Venue Evacuation and Protective Actions MGT 412 Instructor Guide, University of Southern Mississippi National Center for Spectator Sports Safety and Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, August 23, 2018.